淡季影响加深需求端利空 预计6月棉纱价格或震荡下行

Core Viewpoint - The cotton spinning market is entering a traditional demand off-season in June, but the easing of China-US trade relations has positively impacted textile and apparel exports, leading to a recovery in market sentiment. However, the off-season effects are deepening, with a decline in downstream fabric factory operations and reduced orders for spinning enterprises, resulting in increased inventory pressure. Therefore, cotton yarn prices are expected to fluctuate downward in June [1][6][7]. Group 1: Cotton Yarn Market Performance - In May, cotton yarn prices showed a slight upward trend, but the average price still decreased compared to April. The average price of cotton yarn was approximately 20,747 yuan/ton, down 1.84% month-on-month and 8.33% year-on-year [2]. - The cotton spinning industry chain saw improved conditions in May, with cotton prices rising significantly, providing strong support for cotton yarn prices. The average inventory days for pure cotton yarn in large-scale spinning enterprises decreased by 3 days to 29 days [2][4]. Group 2: Export Trends - In April, China's textile and apparel export value was approximately 24.19 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%. Textile exports were about 12.58 billion USD, up 4.4% month-on-month, while apparel exports were around 11.61 billion USD, up 2.2% month-on-month [4]. - With the easing of China-US trade relations, textile and apparel export values are expected to continue to grow in May. However, as the off-season deepens in June, demand expectations are declining, and exports may face certain tariff barriers, indirectly affecting cotton yarn demand [4][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - In June, the supply side is expected to see an increase in inventory for spinning enterprises, leading to a relatively loose supply situation. On the demand side, the off-season effects are deepening, with a forecasted decline in fabric factory operations and a slowdown in inventory reduction by spinning enterprises [6][7]. - Despite the anticipated slight increase in cotton prices in June, which supports the cost side of cotton yarn, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to limited downstream demand and potential inventory pressure on spinning enterprises [7].