三大人民币汇率指数全线下跌，CFETS按周跌0.09

Core Points - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of June 13, with the CFETS index at 95.49, the BIS index at 100.93, and the SDR index at 90.36, marking their lowest levels since December 2020, July 2023, and August 2020 respectively [1][2] Exchange Rate Trends - The USD briefly fell below its annual low but recovered due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, ending the week down over 1% at 98.15. Non-USD currencies rose, with the Swiss franc and Japanese yen gaining 1.34% and 0.54% respectively, and the euro rising 1.33% [5] - The RMB against the USD showed a middle price of 7.1772, up 73 points for the week, while the onshore and offshore RMB closed at 7.1813 and 7.18955, with slight fluctuations [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts express optimism for the RMB's future, suggesting that the policy to maintain exchange rate "resilience" will likely keep the RMB's volatility low in the second half of the year. The RMB's nominal exchange rate remains competitive due to adjustments through low inflation [6][7] - Predictions for the USD/RMB exchange rate by the end of 2025 are set at 6.98, with expectations of structural opportunities for RMB assets and offshore RMB capital markets amid a trend of de-dollarization [7] Domestic Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a 1.7% drop in energy prices [8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, influenced by international factors and domestic energy price declines [8] - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year [8]