英国央行政策前瞻：6月按兵不动成定局 8月降息窗口悄然开启

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is at a critical juncture regarding its monetary policy, with expectations to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% during the upcoming meeting, but signs indicate a potential shift towards rate cuts in the near future [1][4]. Economic Data Divergence: Inflation vs. Growth - The UK faces a mixed economic environment, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining high at 3.5% and service sector inflation spiking to 5.4% in April, significantly above the Bank's 2% target [2]. - The labor market is deteriorating, with employment numbers declining for 9 out of the last 10 months and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years [2]. - Private sector wage growth has dropped from 6% to 5%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the Bank's May forecast, indicating economic strain [2]. Policy Divergence and Market Expectations - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed internal divisions, with a 5-4 vote to lower the rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, reflecting differing views on wage growth and labor market adjustments [3]. - Market pricing suggests traders expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with a year-end rate forecast of 3.75% [3]. - The Bank's Governor, Andrew Bailey, indicated that if inflation targets are threatened, more aggressive actions may be taken, although current data suggests a balance between falling inflation and economic weakness [3]. Future Outlook: Rate Cuts on the Horizon - The Bank of England is likely to remain on hold in June, but the probability of a rate cut in August exceeds 80%, driven by weak labor market conditions and slowing wage growth [4]. - If service sector inflation peaks and declines in Q2, a second rate cut in November may become inevitable [4]. - Despite CPI expected to remain above 3% for the year, falling energy prices and easing global trade tensions could accelerate inflation decline [4]. - The Bank faces dual challenges of unmet inflation targets and weakening economic momentum, with current rates still in a contractionary zone, allowing room for adjustments [4].