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海通期货:弱势美元和地缘政治因素 贵金属易涨难跌
Jin Tou Wang·2025-06-16 06:08

Group 1: Silver Futures Performance - On June 16, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported at 8802 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.18% [1] - The opening price for the day was 8801 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 8848 CNY and a low of 8789 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - Trump indicated that the U.S. may still intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, stating that if Iran attacks the U.S., it will respond with unprecedented force [2] - The U.S. one-year inflation rate expectation for June is initially set at 5.1%, compared to a forecast of 6.4% and a previous value of 6.60% [2] - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for June is 60.5, exceeding the forecast of 53.5 and the previous value of 52.2 [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Haitong Futures noted that despite gold not breaking out of its top range, COMEX gold closed at a historical high of 3452.6 USD last week [3] - Silver's upward momentum has slowed after a significant rally, with the gold-silver ratio quickly retreating to around 90 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated following Israel's large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a spike in WTI crude oil prices by 13% and a concurrent rise in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - U.S. CPI and PPI data for May showed inflation below market expectations, with core CPI remaining below expectations for four consecutive months, indicating reduced inflation risks [3] - The continued depreciation of the dollar has been observed, with the weekly closing price reaching a near three-year low [3] - The first meeting of the China-U.S. trade negotiation mechanism concluded with both sides agreeing on a framework to implement the consensus from the leaders' call [3] - Although tariff negotiations have not yet propelled gold prices further, the weak dollar and geopolitical factors suggest that gold is likely to rise rather than fall [3] - Short-term focus is on whether gold can break the key level of 3500 USD, with the COMEX price range adjusted to 3200-3600 USD, and a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver is recommended [3]