国家统计局：70城二手房价仅3城上涨！更多政策呼之欲出？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a downward trend in housing prices, with a need for more effective policies to stabilize market confidence and demand [1][9][10]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In May 2025, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.7% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively [3][4]. - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price drop of 0.7%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen declining by 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.5% respectively [3][6]. - Year-on-year, new residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.7%, with Shanghai showing a 5.9% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 4.3%, 5.8%, and 2.6% respectively [4][6]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Expert Opinions - Analysts suggest that the marginal effects of policies introduced since Q4 2024 are diminishing, leading to renewed risks of price declines in the housing market [1][9][10]. - Zhang Dawei emphasizes the need for more targeted real estate policies to stabilize market confidence, particularly in third- and fourth-tier cities [10][11]. - The market is expected to enter a seasonal downturn from June to August, with potential price adjustments exceeding those seen in April and May if no strong policies are implemented [10][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Zhang Bo predicts that despite the recent price fluctuations, the overall trend of stabilizing the market remains intact, with potential increases in transaction volumes in the second half of the year [12][13]. - The government is expected to introduce a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the market from various dimensions, including supply and demand, financial support, and market structure optimization [14].