25万岗位蒸发+GDP萎缩，英国央行面临降息压力

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy is showing signs of weakness, prompting the Bank of England to face new considerations for interest rate cuts amid tax increases and US trade policies [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators suggest a reduction in inflationary pressures, allowing room for policy adjustments. Although the inflation rate was unexpectedly revised to 3.4% last month, the Bank of England maintains its forecast that inflation will return to the 2% target by 2027 [4]. - The labor market data has become a critical driver for policy shifts, with May employment numbers showing the largest monthly decline in five years, resulting in a loss of over 250,000 jobs since the announcement of increased employer wage taxes and minimum wage standards [4][7]. Policy Implications - The £26 billion wage tax increase policy implemented by Chancellor Reeves is showing effects, leading to widespread layoffs and salary reductions, which diminishes the Bank of England's concerns about a wage-price spiral [7]. - Economic growth is also showing signs of fatigue, with GDP data indicating the largest monthly contraction in a year and a half, attributed to the impact of tax measures and tariffs [7]. Internal Policy Dynamics - There is a noticeable division within the Bank of England regarding policy direction. Hawkish members may continue to oppose rate cuts, while the Deputy Governor may lean towards a dovish stance. Market expectations reflect an 80% probability of a rate cut in August, up from 40% at the beginning of the month [4][8]. - The upcoming monetary policy meeting is seen as a critical turning point for the UK economy, with the potential for a shift from anti-inflation measures to recession prevention strategies [8]. Market Reactions - The bond market has already begun to reflect this dovish sentiment, with two-year UK bond yields declining by 14 basis points to 3.88%, leading among major developed markets [7].