金十整理：投行原油预期全景扫描 从55美元看空到120美元看多的多空角力

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting oil price forecasts from various investment banks, highlighting the geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil prices, with predictions ranging from bearish to bullish scenarios. Group 1: Price Predictions - Citibank indicates that Israel's actions complicate Trump's efforts to lower oil prices, expecting energy prices to remain elevated for some time [8] - Goldman Sachs maintains that oil supply from the Middle East will not be disrupted, forecasting WTI and Brent crude prices to drop to $55 and $59 per barrel by Q4 2025, and further down to $52 and $56 by 2026 [8] - Morgan Stanley raises its oil price forecast by up to $10, adjusting Q3 Brent crude price expectations to $67.50 per barrel [8] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Westpac believes that oil prices will dip to the lower end of the $60 to $65 range in Q3, potentially falling below $60 in Q4 [8] - CIBC suggests that if regime change becomes a core goal for Israel, Iran may not prioritize maintaining stable crude oil supply [8] - Morgan Chase warns that an attack on Iran could drive oil prices up to $120 per barrel and increase the US CPI to 5% [8] Group 3: Speculative Levels - Spartan Capital notes that geopolitical turmoil is pushing oil prices beyond current fundamentals, recommending short positions if prices exceed $80 per barrel [8] - Dutch Bank states that significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could elevate oil prices to $120 [8] - OCBC Bank suggests that if the situation in Iran escalates into a larger regional conflict, Brent crude prices could reach $120 [8]