一周流动性观察 | 临近税期资金预防性收敛 隔夜资金利率料难明显高于1.4%

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 242 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 16, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan after 173.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - In the week of June 9-13, the central bank had a net liquidity withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan, but the funding environment remained loose, with the overnight rate (DR001) dropping to 1.38% [1][2] - The PBOC's three-stage approach to liquidity management has shifted from implicit to explicit, aiming to enhance transparency in open market operations and stabilize market expectations [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (June 16-20) will see a decrease in reverse repo maturities to 858.2 billion yuan, with 182 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing on Tuesday [2] - The total amount of reverse repos conducted by the PBOC in June is expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, which will help alleviate banks' liability pressures [2] - Despite tax period disturbances, the funding environment is expected to remain stable, with overnight rates unlikely to exceed 1.4% [2] Group 3 - Financial analysts express optimism regarding the liquidity outlook despite potential disturbances from tax payments, MLF maturities, and other factors in the second half of June [3] - The PBOC's clear stance on liquidity support is evident through continued reverse repo operations and high financing outflows from state-owned banks, contributing to a positive market sentiment [3] - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, growing by 2.3% [3] Group 4 - Concerns remain regarding the structural issues in social financing growth, which is primarily supported by government bonds, indicating weak demand in the real economy [4] - The LPR rate decreased in May, but the impact of this policy change on actual financing rates has yet to be fully realized, as the average interest rates for new corporate and personal loans remained unchanged from April [4]