伊朗再提封锁霍尔木兹海峡，这次会动真格吗

Core Viewpoint - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is deemed politically and militarily disadvantageous for the country, as it would lead to a more passive position and does not align with Iran's interests [1][3]. Group 1: Strait of Hormuz and Oil Trade - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for approximately 20 million barrels of oil and condensate daily, accounting for about one-third of global oil trade [1][3]. - Despite Iran's past threats to close the Strait, it has not taken concrete actions to do so, as it relies on this route for oil exports and imports of essential goods [3][4]. - The relationship between Iran and neighboring Gulf countries has improved, particularly following a reconciliation with Saudi Arabia in March 2023, making conflict over the Strait less favorable for Iran [4]. Group 2: Regional Tensions and Nuclear Concerns - The recent escalation of military actions between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about potential nuclear leaks, prompting discussions between Turkey and Iran regarding the situation [5][6]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that despite damage to Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility, external radiation levels remained unchanged, alleviating some regional fears [5]. - Iraq, caught between the conflict, is seeking assurances from both Iran and the U.S. to avoid being drawn into the hostilities [6].