“超级央行周”再度来袭！美联储按兵不动？日本放缓缩表步伐？瑞士会否重返负利率？

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The futures market indicates a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates, with the earliest potential rate cut not expected until September [1][3] - Recent economic data shows signs of a cooling labor market and declining inflation, reducing the likelihood of severe stagflation in the U.S. [3][4] - Market participants are particularly focused on the economic forecast summary and the press conference by Fed Chair Powell to understand the factors that could lead to a rate cut [3][4] Group 2: Global Central Banks - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rates, with no economists predicting a rate hike in the near term [5][6] - There is speculation that the Bank of Japan may slow down its balance sheet reduction, with expectations for a potential rate hike pushed back to Q1 2026 [6][8] - The Swiss National Bank faces pressure to potentially return to negative interest rates due to a strong Swiss franc and deflationary pressures [9][10] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Trade Relations - Global trade relations and political dynamics are anticipated to undergo significant changes by mid-2025, creating unprecedented challenges for markets [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, is contributing to market volatility and economic planning challenges for consumers and companies [4][6] - The UK central bank is expected to align its monetary policy with the Fed's path, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [11]