分析师：伊以冲突引发的美债抛售潮或将持续

Core Viewpoint - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to lead to a sustained sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year bonds, as historical patterns suggest similar outcomes in past conflicts [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Since the escalation of tensions last Friday, the yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds has increased by 9 basis points, driven by rising oil prices and heightened inflation concerns [1] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous conflicts, such as the direct attack by Iran in April 2024 and the renewed conflict in October last year, U.S. Treasury yields also rose sharply and remained elevated for about 30 days [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Market volatility is prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, which is contributing to the increase in oil prices and may further push up the 10-year Treasury yields [1] - Current geopolitical tensions, combined with ongoing trade wars initiated by former President Trump, are exacerbating inflation worries and worsening the U.S. debt situation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As tensions in the Middle East impact energy prices, market traders may continue to demand higher risk premiums, potentially leading to further increases in Treasury yields [1]