“火药桶”上的油阀：以伊冲突再起，霍尔木兹海峡重回风暴眼

Core Viewpoint - The recent military escalation between Israel and Iran has reignited tensions in the Middle East, leading to significant increases in global oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures both recording over 10% gains last week [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both saw over 10% increases last week due to the conflict [1]. - In early Asian trading, domestic crude oil futures surged nearly 6%, reaching a two-month high [1]. - The market's fear escalated after Iranian officials hinted at the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport [3][7]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is vital, facilitating the passage of approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for nearly one-fifth of global maritime oil trade [3][10]. - The potential closure of the Strait could lead to a significant reduction in global oil supply, directly impacting global trade and energy security [10][12]. - Major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, heavily rely on this waterway for their oil exports [10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - JPMorgan raised the probability of a worst-case scenario involving the closure of the Strait from 7% to 17%, warning that oil prices could soar to $120-$130 per barrel [7]. - Goldman Sachs also revised its short-term oil price forecasts, indicating that prices could exceed $100 per barrel under dire circumstances [7]. - The UK Maritime Trade Operations issued warnings to seafarers operating in the region, reflecting heightened concerns in the shipping market [7]. Group 4: Expert Opinions on Conflict Escalation - Experts suggest that while the current conflict is intense, the likelihood of Iran fully blocking the Strait is low due to its own economic dependencies on oil exports [11][12]. - Analysts believe that Iran's threats are more about strategic deterrence rather than a genuine intention to close the Strait, as such actions would have severe economic repercussions for Iran itself [11][12]. - Historical precedents indicate that even the mere threat of disruption in the Strait can lead to significant oil price volatility, as seen in past crises [13][19].