欧洲降息终点将至？多位央行官员称通胀已被控制，但仍面临风险

Core Viewpoint - The risk of inflation falling below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target is now under control, with expectations for consumer price growth to slow to 1.4% by Q1 2026, without shaking market expectations [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the risks of inflation declining are very limited, and the assessment indicates that inflation risks are balanced [1] - The ECB has lowered the key deposit rate from 4% to 2% over the past year, indicating the end of the easing cycle is near, as the economy shows resilience [1] - The market has understood the ECB President Lagarde's statement about being in a favorable position, believing that the goal of maintaining sustainable inflation at 2% is close [1][2] Group 2: Economic Uncertainty and Flexibility - Joachim Nagel, President of the German Central Bank, emphasized the need for flexibility in interest rate decisions due to high uncertainty in growth and inflation outlooks [2] - Nagel noted that recent data and ECB forecasts show that inflation has achieved its mission, but vigilance is necessary regarding price stability risks, particularly due to the ongoing Middle East tensions [2] Group 3: Future Projections - After a cumulative rate cut of 200 basis points within a year, policymakers are assessing whether borrowing costs have reached the cycle's endpoint or if further cuts are needed [6] - The eurozone's inflation rate fell slightly below the 2% target in May, with expectations for further slowdown by 2026 and a return to target by 2027 [6] - Nagel agreed that a prolonged period below the inflation target is unlikely, highlighting that core inflation remains elevated, particularly in service costs [6]