战火引燃“期限溢价”，10年期美债或迎更猛烈抛售潮

Group 1 - The latest military confrontation between Israel and Iran is expected to exert continued selling pressure on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, contrary to some investors' expectations of a flight to safety driving yields down [1][5] - Since the escalation of tensions into direct military conflict, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by over 10 basis points, driven by soaring international oil prices and concerns over inflation [1][5] - Historical data indicates that previous confrontations between Israel and Iran have led to a rapid increase in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which remained elevated for 30 days following such events [4][1] Group 2 - The current geopolitical situation is increasing the long-term risks faced by U.S. Treasury bond investors, who are already contending with rising inflation concerns and expanding U.S. debt issues [1][5] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is steepening, with the 2-year yield rising by 8 basis points since last Thursday, while shorter-term yields are on a downward trajectory [5][6] - The concept of "term premium," which compensates investors for holding long-term bonds, is expected to rise, potentially pushing 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to levels even higher than the over 5% seen in 2023 [6][5]