Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-06-16 10:56Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market is experiencing significant price reductions due to aggressive promotional activities during the 618 shopping festival, coupled with the impact of the recently implemented "strict alcohol ban" policy, leading to a critical moment for liquor companies to manage inventory and sales strategies [2][5][11]. Group 1: Impact of the "Strict Alcohol Ban" - The "strict alcohol ban" policy, which prohibits the provision of high-end liquor at official functions, has led to a collective decline in stock prices for major liquor companies, with significant impacts observed on leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [2][3]. - Despite the negative market sentiment following the ban, analysts believe the actual impact on sales may be limited, as the policy primarily affects public spending rather than private consumption [3][4]. - The current market structure shows that over 60% of liquor consumption occurs in private and corporate self-funded scenarios, which are not directly restricted by the ban [4]. Group 2: 618 Shopping Festival Promotions - The 618 shopping festival has become a crucial opportunity for liquor companies to clear excess inventory, with many high-end liquor prices dropping significantly, often below 1000 yuan [5][7]. - Data from Tmall indicates a 72% year-on-year increase in sales for core liquor brands during the promotional period, suggesting that lower prices are driving higher sales volumes [8]. - The aggressive pricing strategies during the festival have led to a perception that low prices for high-end liquor may become a new norm, as companies adjust their pricing and distribution strategies in response to market conditions [9][11]. Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The high-end liquor market is undergoing a transformation, with a shift in consumer focus towards business banquets and personal consumption, particularly among high-net-worth individuals [11][12]. - Companies are adapting by developing customized products and direct supply channels to private enterprises, thereby reducing reliance on government-related consumption [12]. - The rise of instant retail is reshaping the liquor consumption landscape, influencing pricing structures and necessitating further innovation to attract new consumer segments [12].