金十整理：以色列的算计与冒险，最终能否得偿所愿？

Group 1 - Israel's current military actions against Iran are seen as a strategic opportunity due to U.S. support, Iran's internal weaknesses, and a hardline leadership in Israel, aiming to disrupt the impending nuclear negotiations and consolidate Netanyahu's political power [1] - The historical enmity between Israel and Iran dates back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which transformed them from allies to adversaries, with Iran's regime labeling Israel as "the little Satan" and calling for its destruction [1] - The conflict has escalated from proxy battles to direct confrontations, marked by Iran's first direct attack on Israel in April 2022 and subsequent retaliatory actions, indicating a shift towards a more uncontrollable conflict [1] Group 2 - Israel possesses overwhelming military capabilities, particularly in air power with advanced technologies like the F-35 stealth fighter, and has a multi-layered air defense system with high interception rates [2] - Iran's military capabilities are constrained by sanctions, leading to a reliance on ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, and partnerships with Russia to enhance its air force, despite a lag in conventional military strength [2] - The feasibility of Israel destroying Iran's nuclear facilities is limited due to the depth and dispersion of these sites, requiring heavy munitions that may depend on U.S. involvement, which remains uncertain [2] Group 3 - Israel's allies include the U.S., which provides military support, and the U.K. to a limited extent, while the Trump administration opposed proactive Israeli strikes against Iran [2] - Iran's allies include Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shiite militias, with a friendly but limited relationship with Russia, and the loss of Syria as an ally following the Assad regime's potential downfall [2] - Arab states, while having improved relations with Israel to counter Iran, are cautious and seek to repair ties with Iran, with Saudi Arabia's recent rapprochement leading to a more reserved stance on openly supporting Israel against Muslim nations [2]