加拿大皇家银行：美国股市在高通胀情景下面临下跌20%的风险

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Royal Bank strategists highlight a potential 20% decline in the US stock market under high inflation scenarios, particularly if oil prices rise significantly [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report outlines three potential scenarios for a US stock market pullback, emphasizing the vulnerability of the market due to recent rebounds and high valuations [1] - The strategists indicate that the broader and longer the Middle East conflict lasts, the greater the negative impact on the US stock market [1] Group 2: Potential Outcomes - In the worst-case scenario, if the conflict drives up energy prices, the S&P 500 index could revert to its April lows [1] - In a less severe scenario, the index may decline by approximately 13% [1] Group 3: Inflation and Earnings Growth - Analysis suggests that if inflation rises "severely" to 4%, earnings growth from 2024 onwards could be zero, with the Federal Reserve only cutting rates twice [1] - If the 10-year US Treasury yield remains at current levels, the benchmark index could fall to 4800 points by year-end, representing a nearly 20% decrease from current levels [1]