智通财经网·2025-06-16 11:47Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions and potential trade wars are causing significant volatility in the stock market, particularly affecting high-valuation tech giants, which are seen as vulnerable to renewed trade conflicts and economic impacts from tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - Following President Trump's tariff announcement, U.S. and global stock markets experienced a sharp decline, but tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," led a strong rebound [1][4]. - The Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, has shown increased hedging costs, indicating heightened market concern over potential declines in tech stocks as the 90-day tariff "grace period" approaches its end [1][4]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has risen by 31% since the delay of aggressive tariffs, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which only increased by 20% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Concerns - Investors are worried that renewed trade tensions could negatively impact the growth expectations for the U.S. economy, leading to a repeat of the tech giants' significant declines seen earlier in April [3][5]. - The rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has increased by over 10 basis points since the escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran, reflects ongoing inflation concerns and expectations of expanding U.S. budget deficits [4][6]. - The demand for protective options has surged, indicating a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the recent market rally, as investors are increasingly anxious about preserving their gains [8]. Group 3: AI Sector and Long-term Prospects - Despite concerns over trade policies, the AI computing demand remains robust, with companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom expected to continue benefiting from long-term investment returns in AI infrastructure [6][7]. - The expansion of AI-related software and infrastructure investments is leading to significant stock price increases for companies in this sector, with Nvidia's stock rising over 50% since late April [6][7]. - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, which include Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and others, are driving the long-term bull market in U.S. stocks, supported by strong fundamentals and cash flow, despite their high valuation metrics [7].