日本央行利率决议前瞻：焦点将集中在放慢缩减购债的计划上

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on the Bank of Japan's plan to slow down its bond purchase reduction, with expectations to maintain interest rates at 0.5% and adjust the quarterly reduction scale to around 200 billion yen starting from the fiscal year 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% [1] - There is a 50% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year, with an expected increase of only 17 basis points this year [1] - Bond Purchase Reduction - The expected adjustment in bond purchases will see the quarterly reduction scale lowered to approximately 200 billion yen [1] - A surprise adjustment to the current fiscal year could significantly impact the yen [1] - Inflation and Trade Considerations - Japan's potential inflation is steadily rising, which may keep the likelihood of interest rate hikes elevated [1] - The Bank of Japan is focusing on the evolution of inflation and the US-Japan trade agreement [1]