伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡概率翻倍？投行警告：17%可能出大规模断供危机！中东局势继续主导叙事，市场波动料将异常剧烈；黄金3400关口附近博弈，央行68吨场外扫货托底，如何避免地缘因素退潮后的交易“搁浅”？

Group 1 - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has doubled, with investment banks warning of a 17% chance of a large-scale supply crisis [1] - The Middle East situation continues to dominate market narratives, leading to expectations of significant volatility [1] - Gold is being traded around the 3400 level, with central banks purchasing 68 tons in the market to support prices [1] Group 2 - There are concerns about how to avoid trading stagnation after geopolitical factors recede [1]