提前“抢跑”但后劲不足？美国5月零售销售或现大幅回落

Core Insights - Retail sales in the U.S. are expected to decline significantly in May due to consumers shopping early to avoid potential price increases from tariffs [1] - Economists predict a month-over-month decrease of 0.7% in retail sales, contrasting with a slight increase of 0.1% in April, marking a notable drop [1] - The U.S. Census Bureau is set to release preliminary monthly data on retail and food services sales, which investors are closely monitoring [1] Retail Sales Trends - Gasoline price declines are identified as a major factor contributing to the overall decrease in retail sales, alongside expected weak spending on automobiles and home improvement [1] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales are projected to rise by 0.1% in May, with the Chicago Fed's retail trade leading indicator model estimating a growth of 0.3% [1] - Core retail sales data, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, is expected to increase by 0.2% compared to April, holding significant importance for GDP calculations [1] Consumer Spending Insights - Data from Bank of America indicates that total household spending in May grew by 0.8% year-over-year, slightly lower than April's 1% increase, but showed a month-over-month decline of 0.7% [2] - Specific categories such as restaurant spending remained stable, while expenditures on home improvement, gasoline, and groceries saw the largest declines [2] - Despite the apparent weakness in monthly spending growth, the seasonal adjustment model from the Census Bureau may mitigate some of the downward impact on the data [2] - Overall retail consumption remains relatively robust, as consumers have not yet fully felt the impact of significant tariff-related price increases, although challenges are anticipated in the coming months due to rising price pressures and a weakening job market [2]