【环球财经】地缘政治冲突担忧缓和 国际油价16日下跌

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a decline due to eased concerns over Iranian oil export disruptions, with light crude oil futures falling by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a decrease of 1.66%, and Brent crude oil futures dropping by $1 to $73.23 per barrel, a decrease of 1.35% [1] - Market analysts noted that despite ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Iranian oil facilities remain undamaged, allowing for normal export levels, which has provided temporary relief to the market [2] - The current oil price movements are influenced more by "war risk premium" rather than actual supply disruptions, with geopolitical tensions causing heightened market sensitivity to news updates [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the conflict between Israel and Iran may be short-lived, as further escalation risks could exceed the control of key stakeholders, with oil prices unlikely to surpass $80 per barrel due to U.S. government interests in keeping prices around $50 [2] - A senior Iranian commander indicated that Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil is transported, with estimates suggesting that oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the strait is closed [3] - The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and actual supply-demand dynamics, with short-term price volatility expected unless the conflict impacts oil and gas infrastructure [3]