长城基金汪立：全球通胀预期增强

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline with reduced trading volume, averaging approximately 10,939 billion yuan in daily transactions, as it awaits new breakthrough opportunities [1] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with small-cap stocks leading the overall market performance [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic fundamentals may have passed the fastest decline phase, but PPI remains under pressure; attention is on credit data for the second half of the year [2] - New home transactions have seen a rebound, while automotive consumption has weakened; manufacturing activity remains low, and commodity price pressures persist [2] - CPI showed a month-on-month decrease in May, with a year-on-year decline for four consecutive months; core CPI's year-on-year growth has expanded, primarily due to energy and food prices [2] Market Sentiment - The overall negative impact of fundamentals on the market is still present, but the influence is being priced in; there is a need for early policy intervention to support domestic demand and alleviate supply pressures [3] - Internationally, U.S. soft data has improved, with consumer and business confidence rising, while hard data showed May CPI below expectations [3] Market Outlook - Current risk appetite is adjusting, with fundamental pressures and strong policy expectations; the market is expected to remain in a volatile state [4] - The market's pricing logic is gradually shifting from fundamentals to policy and liquidity expectations, with potential for recovery if favorable policies are introduced [4] Investment Strategy - Short-term market volatility is anticipated, with a focus on avoiding risks from event shocks; a barbell strategy is recommended [5] - Key sectors to watch include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend assets, which are expected to perform well under current conditions [5]