合成橡胶：国际地缘冲突因素影响 BR止跌反弹

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of June 16, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1080 USD/ton, unchanged [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2050 yuan/ton, an increase of 230 yuan [1] - The basis is 235 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan [1] Production and Operating Rates - In May, China's butadiene production was 448,900 tons, a decrease of 1.3% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 143,300 tons, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 54.15 million units, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.46% for January to May [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 11.82 million units, a decrease of 9.6% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% for January to May [2] - As of June 12, the operating rate for the butadiene industry was 69%, an increase of 1% [2] - The operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber was 65%, a decrease of 3.1% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 70%, an increase of 9.3% [2] - The operating rate for all-steel tire manufacturers was 58.7%, an increase of 5.5% [2] Inventory Levels - As of June 11, the port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons [3] - The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, a decrease of 650 tons, a decline of 2.3% [3] - The inventory of traders was 6,210 tons, an increase of 530 tons, a rise of 9.33% [3] Market Insights - According to Longzhong Information on June 12, the total inventory of butadiene samples in China continued to decline, down 8.88% week-on-week [4] - The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 3.91% week-on-week due to the end of maintenance at some facilities [4] - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 22.22% week-on-week, with new shipments arriving but not yet included in storage statistics [4] Analysis - On June 16, geopolitical factors led to a rebound in BR prices, with the main contract BR2507 closing at 11,565 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.21% [5] - In the second half of June, domestic supply of butadiene is expected to recover as facilities restart, leading to a short-term surplus [5] - The ongoing tariffs on automotive and parts under Section 232 may challenge demand from Japanese and Korean automotive and tire manufacturing [5] - The overall supply-demand balance for butadiene in June is expected to remain loose, with high inventory levels in the tire sector likely to drag down operating rates [5] - Short-term cost pressures are anticipated to be weak, while profits and operating rates for styrene-butadiene rubber may improve [5]