瑞士央行利率决议前瞻：央行面临降息抉择 负利率时代即将回归？

Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0% on June 19, 2023, in response to increasing economic challenges [1] - The Swiss Franc (CHF) has appreciated significantly, with the USD/CHF exchange rate dropping to 0.80, marking a more than 10% increase in value within the year, which has negatively impacted Swiss export competitiveness and raised deflation risks [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) in Switzerland fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, marking the first negative growth since 2021, with core inflation at its lowest in two years at 0.5% [2] Group 2 - There is a 69% probability that the SNB will cut rates by 25 basis points to 0%, while there is a 31% chance of a deeper cut to -0.25% [3] - The SNB's traditional method of selling CHF to buy foreign currencies to alleviate appreciation pressure is limited due to U.S. accusations of currency manipulation [3] - The current situation creates a self-reinforcing cycle where increased demand for safe-haven assets leads to CHF appreciation, which in turn suppresses exports and slows economic growth [3] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that 30 economists expect the SNB to lower rates, with 27 predicting a 25 basis point cut and 3 favoring a cut to -0.25% [4] - Some institutions believe the SNB may prefer verbal interventions or limited rate cuts to stabilize the market rather than returning to negative rates [4] - Historical data suggests that while negative rates can weaken the CHF, they may also lead to capital outflows to higher-risk assets [4] Group 4 - Global trade shrinkage due to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical instability may enhance the CHF's status as a safe-haven asset, counteracting the positive effects of rate cuts [5] - While rate cuts may help control CHF appreciation, they do not address structural issues like declining export competitiveness [5] - The reliance on monetary policy could lead to asset bubbles or capital outflows, and if deflation worsens, the SNB may need to expand negative rates or increase foreign exchange interventions, potentially escalating tensions with the U.S. [5]