日本央行拟从明年二季度开始放缓缩表步伐，日本国债收益率上涨，日元对美元短线走高

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is at a crossroads in its monetary policy, maintaining interest rates at 0.5% while planning to continue its quantitative tightening (QT) measures despite rising global economic uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ announced it will reduce its bond purchase scale from 4 trillion yen to 2 trillion yen per quarter starting in April 2026, indicating a gradual approach to QT [1][3]. - The decision to maintain the current interest rate aligns with market expectations, reflecting the BOJ's cautious stance amid rising long-term Japanese government bond yields [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% year-on-year in April, surpassing the BOJ's 2% inflation target, primarily driven by a 7.0% increase in food prices [3][4]. - The BOJ is closely monitoring the impact of trade policies on prices, with significant uncertainty regarding the evolution of trade negotiations, particularly concerning tariffs on Japanese exports [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the BOJ's announcement, Japanese government bond yields increased, and the central bank expressed readiness to adjust its bond purchase plans if necessary [3][5]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced fluctuations, with a notable decline post-announcement, reflecting market reactions to the BOJ's policy decisions [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect the BOJ to maintain a patient approach to adjusting policy rates, given the slow progress in US-Japan trade negotiations and ongoing uncertainties in global markets [4][6]. - There is a potential for further interest rate hikes by the end of the year, particularly if inflationary pressures from rising commodity prices, such as rice, begin to impact the economy [4][6].