分析师警示市场过于乐观！话音刚落，德黑兰再传爆炸声引发原油黄金跳涨

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Royal Bank warns that the S&P 500 could drop by 20% due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran, suggesting that the market may be overly complacent about the potential escalation of the situation [7][8]. Market Reactions - Global stock markets showed a positive trend despite the ongoing conflict, with the Nasdaq index achieving its largest single-day percentage gain since late May [4][5]. - On Monday, major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.75% to 42,515.09 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.94% to 6,033.11 points, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.52% to 19,701.21 points [5]. - However, on Tuesday, market sentiment reversed, with WTI crude oil prices rising by 1.44% and gold prices also increasing slightly, while U.S. stock index futures declined [2][5]. Analyst Warnings - Analysts express concerns that investors may be underestimating the risks of a broader conflict in the Middle East, with warnings that the situation could escalate into a prolonged war [7][8]. - RBC analysts predict that the S&P 500 could fall to a range of 4,800 to 5,200 points, indicating a potential decline of up to 20% due to the adverse effects of the conflict [7]. - The market's current trajectory is seen as overly optimistic, with analysts suggesting that the ongoing conflict could have significant implications for U.S. stock valuations, corporate earnings, and economic growth [8].