新能源浪潮下，煤炭如何重塑定位

Group 1 - China is the world's largest coal producer and consumer, with coal production expected to reach 4.78 billion tons and consumption at 4.81 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 66.6% and 53.2% of energy production and consumption respectively [1] - The coal industry in China has undergone significant structural reforms, leading to increased production capacity and improved safety, with production rising from 3.41 billion tons in 2016 to 4.78 billion tons in 2024, a growth of 40.18% [2] - Despite coal's dominant position, the rapid growth of non-fossil energy sources has raised concerns among industry professionals, with renewable energy generation capacity surpassing 2 billion kilowatts by April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26% [2] Group 2 - The transition of coal's role in the energy structure is expected to evolve through four stages from now until 2060, with coal's position shifting from a primary energy source to a supporting role, while non-fossil energy sources will gradually take precedence [3] - A new energy system is being constructed, characterized by a shift from high-carbon to low-carbon and eventually to zero-carbon energy sources, with an emphasis on distributed energy systems and integrated supply-demand models [4] - The coal industry is transitioning from being viewed solely as a fuel source to being recognized as a raw material and material source, with a focus on creating an integrated ecosystem involving coal, new energy, storage, and hydrogen [6] Group 3 - Future coal industry policies are expected to prioritize quality over quantity, focusing on energy security, green transformation, technological innovation, and social equity, while facilitating an orderly exit from coal dependency [6][7] - The coal sector's strategic focus will include optimizing capacity, low-carbon demonstration projects, new energy integration, carbon trading, and the development of high-end coal-based materials [7] - The consensus among experts is that coal will continue to play a crucial role in ensuring energy security, particularly as renewable energy sources face challenges related to storage and volatility [6]