创金合信基金魏凤春：内部失衡逐步得到修正

Market Overview - The recent asset trends highlight two significant characteristics: a surge in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and a substantial decline in China's A-share market, particularly in the liquor sector, influenced by government regulations on public consumption [2][3] - The conflict in the Middle East is expected to have localized impacts, with concerns about oil supply disruptions potentially affecting global inflation and trade negotiations, particularly in the context of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][3] Economic Adjustments - China's economic imbalance is gradually being corrected, with improvements in the trade balance as the difference between imports and exports narrows, indicating a reduction in internal and external imbalances [4] - Retail sales and industrial output are showing signs of recovery, with the gap between demand and supply starting to turn positive after a prolonged period of negativity [4][5] Investment Trends - Manufacturing and real estate investments are both declining, which may help balance effective consumption and investment, addressing issues of overcapacity [5] - The focus on technological innovation and the avoidance of excessive competition in the new energy vehicle sector are becoming consensus among policymakers, which may delay market clearing but also reduce social risks [5]