IEA预警全球石油需求2029年触顶 与欧佩克预测尖锐对立

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that global oil demand will peak in 2029, contrasting sharply with OPEC's predictions of continued growth without a forecast for peak demand [1] Group 1: Oil Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is projected to reach a peak of 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029, followed by a slight decline in 2030 [1] - The IEA attributes the growth in demand to lower gasoline prices in the U.S. and a slowdown in electric vehicle adoption [1] Group 2: Supply Projections - Global oil production capacity is expected to increase by over 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day [1] - The IEA indicates that supply will remain adequate before 2030, provided there are no significant supply disruptions [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Recent conflicts, such as those between Israel and Iran, highlight significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security [1] - The IEA's Executive Director emphasizes that while the oil market is expected to be well-supplied in the coming years, geopolitical events pose major risks to supply security [1]