世界黄金协会2025年最新调查：地缘政治与经济不确定性升温 预计全球央行黄金储备将增长

Group 1 - Over 95% of surveyed central banks believe that global central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 and an increase of 17 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The survey collected responses from 73 central banks, the highest participation rate to date, with nearly 43% planning to increase their gold reserves in the coming year [1] - The main motivations for central banks to hold gold have shifted to long-term value storage (80%), effective diversification of investment portfolios (81%), and performance during crises (85%) [1] Group 2 - Among emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central banks, 48% of the 58 surveyed expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, compared to 21% of developed economy central banks [2] - Inflation (84%) and geopolitical issues (81%) are the primary concerns for EMDE central banks, while 67% and 60% of developed economy central banks share similar views, respectively [2] - 59% of surveyed central banks now store their gold reserves domestically, up from 41% in 2024, and 73% expect the share of the US dollar in global reserves to decline in the next five years [2] Group 3 - The trend of central banks purchasing gold reflects the current characteristics of the global financial and geopolitical environment, emphasizing gold as a strategic asset amid uncertainty and turmoil [3] - Central banks are closely monitoring interest rates, inflation, and instability, which drives their decision to increase gold reserves as a risk mitigation strategy [3]