民生证券：汽车消费潜力进一步释放 报废置换+增换购持续驱动终端销量上行

Core Insights - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy will further unleash automotive consumption potential, with a projected increase in sales for both traditional and new energy vehicles in 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 8.584 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, with traditional fuel vehicles declining by 6.3% and new energy vehicles increasing by 44.3% [1][2] - The overall price competition in the automotive market is intensifying, leading to increased discounts [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in wholesale sales was 46.8%, up by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the insurance penetration rate reached 49.3%, an increase of 10.4 percentage points [2] Group 2: Future Projections - For the second half of 2025, the trade-in policy is expected to support demand, with projected insurance sales of 24.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and wholesale sales of 29.3 million units, a 6.4% increase [3] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is anticipated to accelerate, with expected insurance sales of 14.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, and wholesale sales of 16.5 million units, a 34.6% increase [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The market is becoming clearer, with domestic brands expected to exceed 70% market share, particularly in the segment below 150,000 yuan [4] - Leading brands in the 150,000 yuan segment are expected to maintain stable advantages, with companies like Geely and Xiaomi likely to gain market share through new product offerings [4] - In the high-end market, brands like Huawei and Xiaomi are expected to capture market share due to their marketing capabilities and technological advantages [4] Group 4: Technological Advancements - In the first half of 2025, companies like Xiaopeng and Leap Motor are enhancing their intelligent driving capabilities, with new products featuring advanced driving algorithms and hardware improvements [5] - The trends for the second half of 2025 include a decrease in intelligent driving prices, accelerated deployment of large models, and increased hardware computing power [5] Group 5: Export Opportunities - The export performance in the first half of 2025 was affected by a decline in the Russian market, but companies like BYD are experiencing growth in new energy exports [6] - The total export volume of passenger cars is expected to reach 5.7 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, driven by technological advantages and local production [7] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-quality domestic companies that are accelerating breakthroughs in intelligence and globalization, including Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, and Seres [8]