从华盛顿噪音到欧亚机遇：欧洲资管巨头Amundi押注欧洲与新兴市场崛起

Core Viewpoint - Amundi SA, a major European asset management firm, is shifting its investment focus from the US to Europe and emerging markets due to anticipated economic slowdown in the US and potential market volatility caused by US tax and trade policies [1][2][5] Investment Strategy - Amundi is adopting a "moderate risk preference" and advises investors to hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations [1] - The firm expects US economic growth to slow significantly to 1.6% by 2025-2026, prompting a diversification of investment portfolios away from US assets [1][5] - The asset manager favors Japanese yen and euro over the traditionally preferred US dollar, indicating a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [5] Market Trends - The "American exceptionalism" narrative is collapsing, leading to a sell-off of US assets by international investors and some Wall Street firms [2][5] - The S&P 500 index has seen a modest increase of less than 3% this year, while the Stoxx 600 index has surged by 20% after adjusting for dollar exchange rates [2] - Amundi highlights a structural change in global trade and international relations under the Trump administration, which is expected to have lasting effects beyond the current government term [5] Emerging Markets Focus - Amundi is increasingly focusing on European defense and infrastructure stocks, as well as Asian markets, particularly the "Make in India" initiative [5] - The firm holds a positive outlook on emerging market bonds, which are seen as providing significant buffers against volatility in the US Treasury market [5] Broader Market Sentiment - Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, echoes Amundi's sentiment, predicting a long-term decline in the dollar and suggesting that international stocks, particularly from emerging markets, will outperform US equities [7] - Other analysts, including those from JPMorgan, predict that markets in Japan, the EU, and China will outperform the US over the next 10 to 15 years, driven by concerns over US fiscal debt and high market valuations [8]