Core Insights - The global semiconductor industry is undergoing a transformation due to geopolitical factors and the AI technology race, with supply chain regionalization and tariff policy uncertainties reshaping the market landscape [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global semiconductor IC industry is projected to reach a value of $647.3 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.6%, driven by surging AI computing demand and a rebound in memory prices [2] - The wafer foundry revenue is expected to grow by 19.1% in 2025, but excluding TSMC's contribution, the industry's growth rate will drop to 5.7%, highlighting the significance of advanced process technologies [2][3] Group 2: Regional Disparities - Taiwan currently leads the global foundry capacity with a 73% share, but its advanced process share is expected to decline from 66% in 2021 to 54% by 2030 due to power constraints and capacity migration [3] - The U.S. aims to increase its advanced process share from 18% to 27% by 2030, with TSMC's Arizona factory projected to contribute 16% of U.S. advanced process capacity [3] Group 3: AI Impact on Semiconductor Demand - AI server chip demand is expected to grow by 24% year-on-year in 2024, continuing the previous year's 46% growth, becoming a core driver for advanced process demand [4] - The semiconductor industry is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% by 2028, with data centers leading at 11.5% CAGR, significantly outpacing other sectors [4] Group 4: HBM Market Trends - The demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is expected to grow by 94% in 2025, with HBM3e projected to account for over 90% of shipments by that year [7] - NVIDIA is anticipated to maintain a dominant market share in HBM, potentially reaching over 70% by 2025, although structural shifts may occur post-2026 [7][8] Group 5: Emerging Technologies - Gallium Nitride (GaN) is nearing large-scale application, with its market size expected to grow from approximately $390 million last year to $3.33 billion by 2030, driven by high-power applications in automotive and AI data centers [10] - AI is also expected to drive the demand for enterprise SSDs, with the share of AI-driven server SSDs projected to rise from 9%-10% to 20% by 2028 [9]
人工智能重塑全球半导体格局 区域分化加剧自研芯片提速