Southwest Airlines: Short Interest Plunges—Should You Buy?

Core Viewpoint - New geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to increased uncertainty and volatility in global markets, particularly affecting the energy sector and oil prices, which have risen from around $60 to nearly $80 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Oil Prices on Airlines - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has significant implications for oil supply, suggesting that oil prices will continue to rise, which poses challenges for the transportation sector, especially airlines [2]. - Despite rising oil prices, short interest in Southwest Airlines has decreased by up to 8.5%, indicating a shift in sentiment among investors [3][4]. - Southwest Airlines has historically excelled in fuel cost hedging, but stable oil prices have diminished this advantage, leading to a potential shift in investor perception [5][6]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast and Market Sentiment - Analysts had previously forecasted Southwest Airlines to report earnings per share (EPS) of up to 60 cents by Q4 2025, a significant improvement from a current net loss of 13 cents per share [7][8]. - Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating for Southwest Airlines from Hold to Buy, with a valuation target of up to $40 per share, indicating a potential upside of 27% from current levels [9][10]. - The airline's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 43.9, significantly higher than the peer group's average of 8.3, reflecting a premium valuation that suggests market confidence in the airline's future performance [12][13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market appears to be anticipating a supply shock that could drive oil prices higher, which would positively impact Southwest Airlines' prospects [14]. - While Southwest Airlines currently holds a Hold rating among analysts, there are indications that it may not be the top choice for investors compared to other stocks recommended by analysts [15].