Buy Or Fear MGM Stock At $34?

Core Viewpoint - MGM Resorts stock is perceived as a value trap despite positive developments such as a new stock buyback and growth in online gaming, with the stock declining year-to-date while the S&P 500 has increased by approximately 3% [2][3] Financial Performance - BetMGM raised its revenue projection for 2025 to at least $2.6 billion, up from $2.4–$2.5 billion, with EBITDA now anticipated to be no less than $100 million, indicating significant improvement [3] - MGM Resorts International has averaged a growth rate of 21.8% in its top line over the last 3 years, compared to a 5.5% increase for the S&P 500 [7] - Revenues increased by 6.7% from $16 billion to $17 billion over the last 12 months, while the S&P 500 also grew by 5.5% [7] - Quarterly revenues fell 0.7% to $4.3 billion in the latest quarter from $4.4 billion a year prior, contrasting with a 4.8% enhancement for the S&P 500 [8] Valuation Metrics - MGM has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.5 compared to 3.1 for the S&P 500, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4 against the benchmark's 26.9 [7] - The company's price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 7.8 versus 20.9 for the S&P 500 [7] Profitability and Financial Stability - MGM's operating income for the past four quarters was $1.7 billion, reflecting a low operating margin of 9.7% [9] - The net income stood at $747 million, suggesting a low net income margin of 4.3% compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [9] - MGM's debt level was $32 billion with a market capitalization of $9.8 billion, resulting in a poor debt-to-equity ratio of 335.0% [10] Resilience During Economic Downturns - MGM stock has historically performed worse than the S&P 500 during downturns, with significant declines during events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis [11][12] - The stock dropped 46.1% during the inflation shock of 2022, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [12] Summary of Current Situation - Despite long-term prospects from BetMGM and expansion in Japan, immediate risks outweigh benefits at current valuations, leading to an unattractive assessment of MGM stock [13] - Overall performance metrics indicate very strong growth potential but very weak profitability, financial stability, and downturn resilience [16]