社零与消费贷走势分化 服务消费供给应扩大

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data for May shows resilience in economic operations and continuous structural improvement, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since early 2024, and the growth rate accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - The strong consumption growth is attributed to the "trade-in" subsidy policy and the preheating effect of the "618" shopping festival since mid-May, which have significantly boosted consumption [1] - In contrast to the high growth in retail sales, the short-term loans of the household sector continued to decline in May, with consumer loan balances showing only a slight increase of less than 1 billion yuan month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of nearly 39 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The subsidy policy has released potential consumer demand, but consumer attitudes are changing, with notable trends in spending on trendy toys, concerts, and sports events [2] - The recovery in consumption is no longer synchronized with the increase in consumer loan balances, which have been declining since reaching a peak of approximately 10.4 trillion yuan in January 2024, indicating that relying on financial leverage to boost consumption is more of a "nice-to-have" rather than a necessity [2] - The current "trade-in" subsidy policies mainly target durable consumer goods, showing short-term effects, but their impact on consumption will gradually weaken over time; therefore, there is a need to support the expansion of high-quality service consumption supply to align with employment stabilization and improving residents' income expectations [2]