Slowing Gardasil Sales Hurt MRK's Top Line: Is Recovery in the Cards?

Core Insights - Merck's Gardasil vaccine, crucial for preventing HPV-related cancers, has seen a significant decline in sales, particularly in China, leading to a revised sales outlook [1][2][9] - The company has temporarily halted Gardasil shipments to China to manage high inventory levels, impacting its long-term sales guidance [2][9] - Despite challenges in China, Gardasil sales remain strong in other major markets, although global growth is expected to slow [3] Sales Performance - Gardasil sales fell 40% year-over-year to $1.33 billion in Q1 2025, with a 3% decline to $8.58 billion in 2024 [1][9] - The economic slowdown in China has led to elevated inventory levels, prompting Merck to pause shipments [2][9] Market Competition - Merck's new monoclonal antibody, Enflonsia, for RSV prevention is set to launch in the U.S. but will face competition from AstraZeneca/Sanofi's Beyfortus, which achieved blockbuster status in its first year [5][6] - Other RSV vaccines, including Pfizer's Abrysvo and GSK's Arexvy, have also been approved, increasing competitive pressure [6][7] Valuation and Estimates - Merck's shares have underperformed, losing 17.8% year-to-date compared to a 2.6% industry increase [8] - The company's price/earnings ratio stands at 8.79, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.63 [10] - Consensus earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, indicating a potential decline in profitability [11]