中东地缘冲突加剧国际油价震荡

Group 1 - On June 13, Israel launched a military attack on Iran, causing significant reactions in the international oil market, with Brent crude oil futures and WTI prices both surging over 7%, marking the largest daily increase since the Ukraine crisis began [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to heighten the risk of oil supply disruptions, with the potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil transport [1] - Major investment banks and energy institutions have revised their oil price forecasts, indicating that while prices may spike due to immediate events, they are likely to return to fundamental supply-demand dynamics in the long term [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs noted that despite high short-term risk premiums, major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have nearly 3 million barrels per day of spare capacity, suggesting that prices may retreat to the $75 to $78 per barrel range after an initial spike [2] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that the recent price surge is primarily due to heightened tensions and risk hedging, with global refining margins significantly narrowing compared to last year, indicating insufficient downstream demand to support sustained high prices [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that uncertainties in Middle Eastern energy security could pose significant challenges to global energy supply-demand balance in the second half of the year [3] Group 3 - Shell has indicated a shift in energy investment strategies from a "high return" logic to a "high safety" logic due to geopolitical risks, with plans to accelerate project developments in Africa and Brazil to mitigate concentration risks [3] - Saudi Aramco has assured that it can increase production by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day within 48 hours if the market experiences panic, aiming to stabilize expectations [3] Group 4 - The long-term challenge of ensuring energy supply security is complex, particularly for energy-importing countries, which need to diversify energy imports and establish strategic reserves to buffer against price volatility [4] - The international oil market may experience a new normal characterized by "larger fluctuations and low-level oscillations," with a supply slightly exceeding demand likely to persist [4]