特朗普税改法案代价高昂！CBO预计十年或增加2.8万亿联邦债务

Group 1 - The CBO and JCT estimate that Trump's spending and tax reform plan, if implemented, will increase federal debt by $2.8 trillion over the next decade [1] - The CBO's latest assessment includes macroeconomic impacts, projecting a 0.5% increase in real GDP but a 0.14 percentage point rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, leading to increased borrowing costs that outweigh tax revenue gains [1] - By 2034, the CBO expects public-held federal debt to rise by $3.3 trillion, reaching 124% of GDP, compared to the baseline forecast of 117% [1] Group 2 - The Senate is currently evaluating its version of the tax reform bill, which continues Trump's 2017 personal tax cuts and introduces new tax exemptions [2] - The House passed the bill with a narrow margin, while fiscal conservatives express concerns over its costs, and moderate Republicans from Democratic-leaning states demand an increase in the SALT deduction cap [2] - The Senate's version retains a $10,000 SALT deduction cap, significantly lower than the House's proposed $40,000 cap, leading to strong opposition from Republicans supporting SALT reform [2] Group 3 - The House version is viewed as the most fiscally prudent, while the Senate plans to use a "current policy baseline" for budget assessment, which may obscure the true costs of the bill [3]