5月份钢铁PMI显示：供需两端再度回落 钢铁市场承压运行
Zhong Guo Chan Ye Jing Ji Xin Xi Wang·2025-06-17 22:30

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing increased operational pressure as the PMI for May dropped to 46.4%, indicating a return to contraction after three months of growth [1][2] Demand Side Summary - Steel demand is declining due to weak terminal procurement and delayed policy impacts, with the new orders index falling to 46.4%, down 4.6 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The real estate sector is facing challenges, with a year-on-year decline in development investment and a decrease in the real estate development prosperity index, leading to weakened demand for steel [2][4] - The terminal market is also contracting, with a 7.5% month-on-month decline in the procurement of rebar in Shanghai [2] Supply Side Summary - Steel production has decreased, with the production index at 42.8%, down 8 percentage points month-on-month, ending three months of growth [2][5] - The daily crude steel output for major steel enterprises was 220.5 million tons in early May, showing a slight increase, but later figures indicated a decline [2] - The inventory index for finished products rose to 43.3%, up 7.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in the destocking process [3] Price Dynamics Summary - Steel prices are under pressure, with the Shanghai rebar price index dropping to 2,999 yuan/ton, marking a significant decline from previous highs [4] - Despite falling steel prices, the overall cost of steelmaking has decreased, allowing for some profit margin retention for steel mills [4] Future Outlook Summary - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak demand pattern in June, influenced by ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and slow infrastructure project rollouts [4][5] - The production outlook remains cautious, with the production expectation index falling to 42.8%, indicating a potential further decline in production activity [5] - Raw material prices are also expected to remain low and fluctuate, influenced by high inventory levels and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [5]