市场押注美联储今年至少降息一次 美债收益率走低

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates at least one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury prices and a decline in yields across various maturities [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - U.S. Treasury prices have risen by 2.3% year-to-date, with the 10-year Treasury yield decreasing by 16 basis points as of 2025 [4]. - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 2 basis points to 3.95%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 6 basis points to 4.39% [1]. - The demand for 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was strong, with a reissue size of $23 billion and a yield of 1.650% [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to maintain rates steady in June and July but may provide updated economic and interest rate forecasts during the upcoming two-day meeting [1][4]. - There is speculation that the Fed may signal two rate cuts, but there is a risk they might only indicate one, which could pressure the front end of the market [1]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Retail sales in May showed the largest decline of the year, indicating that new tariff measures have suppressed consumer spending, particularly on automobiles [4]. - Despite a slowdown in job growth, the unemployment rate has remained stable for three consecutive months, and potential inflation rates have been below expectations for four months [4]. Group 4: Legislative Developments - The Senate has revised a tax and spending bill that includes changes to a provision known as "retaliatory tax," which aims to address discriminatory taxation by foreign countries on U.S. businesses [6]. - The new version of the tax will delay its implementation until 2027 and increase annually by 5 percentage points until it reaches a 15% cap [6].