特稿｜罗志恒：大力发展服务消费——现状、症结与对策建议

Core Viewpoint - The development of service consumption in China faces several constraints, including unstable income expectations, limited leisure time for residents, insufficient urbanization of the floating population, and inadequate supply. Measures are necessary to address these issues [1]. Group 1: Importance and Characteristics of Service Consumption - Service consumption is a significant component of total demand and a key focus for boosting consumption, with strong employment absorption capacity [1]. - Service consumption has distinct characteristics compared to goods consumption, including higher income elasticity, synchronous supply and demand, dependence on leisure time, and reliance on population concentration [2][3]. - The importance of service consumption is increasingly recognized in the current macroeconomic context, as it relates to stable growth, employment, and social welfare [4]. Group 2: Current Status of Service Consumption - From 2013 to 2024, per capita service consumption in China increased from 5,000 yuan to 13,000 yuan, with its share of total consumption rising from 39.7% to 46.1%. However, it has not yet returned to pre-2020 trend levels [5]. - China's service consumption level is lagging behind its development stage, with a significant gap compared to developed countries. In 2023, service consumption accounted for 66% in the US and around 60% in Japan, France, and the UK, compared to China's lower levels [8]. - Housing services constitute the largest share of service consumption, accounting for 34.6% in 2023, with self-owned housing being the primary source of this service [14]. - The share of transportation, communication, and education services has declined since 2019, indicating limited growth in these areas [17]. - Restaurant services have seen a notable increase, reaching 15.7% of service consumption in 2023, while medical services slightly increased to 14.9% [20]. Group 3: Constraints on Service Consumption - Service consumption is more sensitive to changes in income, with higher income elasticity compared to goods consumption, leading to a slower recovery post-2020 [21]. - The social security system's support for service consumption is inadequate, with significant disparities in pension benefits between urban and rural residents [22]. - Long working hours limit leisure time, with an average of 48.6 hours per week in 2023, significantly higher than the OECD average [22]. - Urbanization of the floating population remains a challenge, affecting their service consumption due to limited access to education and other services [23]. - There are supply shortages in certain service sectors, such as elderly care, where the number of registered beds is lower than in developed countries [23]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations to Boost Service Consumption - Policies should shift towards stimulating service consumption, including service consumption subsidies and consumption vouchers [24]. - Reforming the social security system to enhance pension benefits could reduce precautionary savings and release service consumption potential [24]. - Improving leisure time through optimized work and holiday policies can directly boost service consumption [24]. - Addressing educational access for the children of the floating population can significantly enhance service consumption [25]. - Public investment should focus on improving service supply quality, particularly in healthcare, education, and elderly care [25]. - The regulatory environment for service industries should be optimized to enhance market access and service quality [26].