特稿 | 闪辉：发展制造业仍是当前政策重点，经济再平衡长期方向明确

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, which is expected to positively impact China's economic growth and reduce the need for aggressive policy easing [1][2][4]. Trade Relations - The US has agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing the effective tariff rate from approximately 107% to around 39%, while China will lower its effective tariff rate from 144% to about 30% [1][2]. - The reduction in tariffs exceeds market expectations, indicating a lesser drag on China's economic growth than previously predicted [2]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - China's export growth forecast for 2025 has been revised from -5% to 0%, with net exports now expected to contribute +0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, up from a previous estimate of -0.5 percentage points [4]. - The anticipated policy easing has been adjusted downward, with expectations for further monetary policy easing in the form of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [4][5]. GDP Growth Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised from 4.0% and 3.5% to 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively, due to the improved trade outlook [5][6]. Policy Response - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market confidence, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5% [7]. - The approach to fiscal policy has become more conservative, with a focus on targeted measures rather than broad-based fiscal stimulus [8][9]. Manufacturing Sector Focus - Despite calls for a shift towards consumer-driven growth, the Chinese government continues to prioritize the development of the manufacturing sector, viewing it as a key driver of economic growth [10][11]. - China's manufacturing sector remains robust, with significant global market share and competitive advantages in production costs [11]. Economic Rebalancing - The long-term direction for China's economy is to shift towards domestic demand and household consumption, with potential reforms aimed at enhancing consumer spending and social security systems [12][13].