钢材：伊朗以色列冲突影响黑色稍强走势

Core Viewpoint - The overall steel market remains stable, with spot prices following futures fluctuations and a weakening basis observed [1] Supply - High production levels are showing signs of decline, with pig iron production slightly decreasing to 2.416 million tons, and daily scrap consumption down by 20,000 tons to 520,000 tons [2] - The total output of the five major steel products decreased by 215,000 tons to 8.59 million tons, with rebar production at 3.246 million tons [2] - The production of non-major steel products and steel billets is increasing, while domestic demand is declining year-on-year, contrasting with an increase in external demand [2] Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to decline, down by 140,000 tons to 8.68 million tons [2] - Year-to-date, the apparent demand for the five major steel products is nearly flat compared to last year, with a slight decrease of 0.8% [2] - Seasonal factors and tariff impacts are contributing to a weakening of orders, particularly noted in April [2] Inventory - Steel inventories are approaching a turning point, with total inventory down by 90,000 tons to 13.54 million tons [3] - Rebar inventory decreased by 124,000 tons to 5.58 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 50,000 tons to 3.45 million tons [3] - The inventory of flat steel products is showing a clear trend of accumulation [3] Market Outlook - The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a rise in coking coal prices, positively impacting the steel market [4] - Iran's steel production is projected at 31 million tons for 2024, with exports expected to remain stable, which does not significantly alter China's steel supply-demand balance [4] - Despite short-term market sentiment improvements, the overall supply remains loose, and a downward trend in black metal prices is anticipated [4]