机构看金市：6月18日

Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation, particularly the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, is expected to continue driving gold prices upward until there is a perceived easing of tensions [1][2] - Weak economic data from the U.S., including a 0.9% decline in retail sales and a 0.2% drop in industrial output, has increased expectations for a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, benefiting silver prices [2][3] - Gold is seen as a hedge against currency devaluation, with its price rising nearly 30% against the U.S. dollar this year, driven by increasing fiscal deficits and potential inflation [4] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, marking the largest month-over-month decline in four months, reflecting consumer caution ahead of tariff policy implementations [3] - Industrial production data also fell short of market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [3] - The Senate's proposal to make corporate tax cuts permanent and raise the debt ceiling poses long-term challenges for the U.S. dollar and treasury credit [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Despite a strong dollar, gold prices have been resilient, with a potential consolidation around $3,400 before the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - Silver prices have surged, breaking through $37 per ounce, indicating a strong market response to expectations of monetary easing [1][2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with geopolitical tensions and economic data influencing trading strategies [5]