金十整理：机构前瞻美联储利率决议（二）——降息预期又要缩水？点阵图会打破降息幻想吗？

Group 1 - The dot plot suggests that the Federal Reserve may only lower interest rates once this year, with various institutions predicting a reduction of 25 basis points [1][2] - Morningstar Capital indicates that the reduction in rate cut expectations will not be surprising, while Wells Fargo anticipates a downward revision in the Fed's economic forecast [1] - Deutsche Bank notes that if the Fed raises inflation expectations, the number of rate cuts could decrease from two to one [1] Group 2 - Danske Bank expects the median interest rate forecast for 2025-2026 to rise by 25 basis points to 4.1% and 3.6% respectively, due to short-term inflation risks [1] - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point increase in the median interest rate forecast for this year, potentially pushing rate cuts to next year or even removing them from the policy path [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the dot plot may not show significant changes, with the Fed still expecting two rate cuts this year despite recent economic shifts [2]