英国通胀达标 中东冲突或搅局央行计划

Core Insights - The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-on-year in May, aligning with the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast [1] - The service sector inflation rate decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, meeting the BoE's expectations, indicating a key indicator of domestic price pressures [1] - The rise in food prices, including chocolate and meat, offset declines in airfare and fuel prices, contributing to the overall inflation picture [1] Economic Implications - Following the data release, the British pound continued to strengthen, with the market pricing in two additional 25 basis point rate cuts by the BoE this year [1] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran may complicate future decisions by the BoE, as oil prices have surged approximately 14% over the past week [1] - While investors and economists believe the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming Thursday meeting is low, the August meeting may still allow for further actions [1]