日央行“鸽中藏鹰”：暂缓加息但警告通胀上行风险 或为10月行动埋伏笔

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is cautious about inflation pressures and may leave room for action this year despite a prolonged wait before any interest rate hikes [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Japan's overall inflation rate reached 3.6% in April, significantly above the BOJ's target of 2% [2] - Rising food prices, particularly rice, are contributing to inflationary pressures, which may lead the BOJ to revise its inflation forecasts in the upcoming quarterly report [2][4] - The BOJ's current forecast anticipates core CPI to reach 2.2% for the year ending March 2026, followed by a decline to 1.7% [2] Group 2: Economic Risks - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies complicates the BOJ's efforts to exit a decade-long stimulus policy, with plans for a July rate hike being postponed due to tariff announcements [2][3] - The BOJ is increasingly concerned about the second-round effects of supply shocks, particularly from rising food prices, which could alter public inflation expectations [3][4] Group 3: Future Rate Hikes - Analysts expect the BOJ to potentially raise interest rates in October if inflation expectations continue to rise [2][5] - The timing of any rate hike may be influenced by ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, with some analysts predicting a delay until early 2026 if negotiations drag on [4]