分拆重组释放价值，美银给予华纳兄弟探索(WBD.US)14美元目标价

Core Viewpoint - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US) is undergoing structural reorganization and strategic adjustments to reshape its valuation logic amid intensified streaming competition and industry consolidation, with Bank of America maintaining a "Buy" rating and a target price of $14, indicating significant upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Structural Reorganization - On June 9, Warner Bros. announced a tax-free split into two publicly traded companies: Streaming & Studios (S&S) and Global Networks (GN), which is seen as a prime path to unlock the company's undervalued assets [1] - The Streaming & Studios segment includes core assets such as Warner Bros. Television, Film Group, DC Studios, gaming division, HBO, HBO Max, and the television film library, which are expected to thrive post-split by shedding debt constraints [1][2] Group 2: Valuation Analysis - Bank of America conducted a detailed valuation analysis, suggesting that if Global Networks operates with 4x leverage and Streaming & Studios carries approximately $5.614 billion in net debt, the implied value for WBD shareholders from Global Networks could be $4.61 per share [2] - For Streaming & Studios, using 12x and 14x 2026 EBITDA valuations, the equity value is estimated at approximately $32.8 billion, translating to an implied value of $13.34 per share, with potential market multiples suggesting a value close to $26 per share [3] Group 3: Growth Prospects - Streaming & Studios is projected to achieve over $1.3 billion in EBITDA by 2025, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 90%, driven by subscriber growth, international expansion, pricing strategy optimization, and increased advertising scale [3] - The business is expected to benefit from various growth drivers, including the reboot of DC properties, recovery in gaming, and improved film performance, with a target of exceeding $3 billion in studio EBITDA [3] Group 4: Strategic Options for Global Networks - Despite a pessimistic outlook for traditional linear TV, Global Networks has potential for value creation if managed with the right capital structure, with strategic options including cash management, asset sales, and private equity investments [2][4] - The business could generate approximately 20% free cash flow yield under a 5x EV/EBITDA valuation and 100% free cash flow conversion rate, providing good returns for shareholders [4] Group 5: Future Cash Flow and Investment Outlook - As Warner Bros. invests in streaming and studio operations, both independent entities are expected to achieve self-sustaining free cash flow, which is crucial for future growth [5] - The target price of $14 is based on a projected 2025 EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 7.4x, slightly above peers, reflecting the potential for value enhancement through strategic initiatives [6]